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Want To Automate Your Trading Without Coding? More Expert Traders Trading Nut Mind of the World's Best Traders. Regardless of whether the demand is for hedging, speculative, or conversion purposes, true movements are based on the need for the currency.

Currency values decrease when there is excess supply. Supply and demand should be the real determinants for predicting future movements. However, how to predict supply and demand is not as simple as many would think. Two of the primary factors affecting supply and demand of currencies are interest rates and the overall strength of the economy.

There are many factors that contribute to the net supply and demand for a currency and the strength of the economy. Read on to uncover the main drivers that influence the exchange rates. The number of economic announcements made each day from around the world can be intimidating, so we will focus just on the most important ones. How are they divided The drivers are divided into three major groups: Geo-political, Economic and Market Psychology.

Here they are: Kathy Lien Chief Currency Strategist at Forex Capital Markets LLC. Former Currency trader at JPMorgan Chase. TOP 9 Unemployment NFP or Non Farm 1 Payroll 6 Retail sales Will US employment continue to grow?

For example, if the U. trade the U. more dollars flow out of the U. and the value of the U. currency depreciates. ongoing uncertainty for the U. If the deficit is greater than Stretch, London-based head of market expectations however, it can trigger a foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC. negative price movement.

After three straight years of gains, strategists All traderswill find it are forecasting the U. currency will be a world beater again in , strengthening valuable to know when against seven of 10 developed-world peers important economic data by the end of the year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. This world keep them flat or lower. economic monetary policy. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Key indicators A closer look at some indicators Stock market Even day and swing traders will find it valuable to keep up with incoming economic reports from the conditions major economies.

Stock markets have a significant impact on exchange rate movements because they are a major place for high-volume currency movements. When foreign investors There are times where sentiment in the equity move their money to a markets will be the precursor to major moves in the forex market. If the stock equity market is particular stock equity rising, investment dollars generally come in to seize the opportunity.

Alternatively, falling equity market, they convert markets could prompt domestic investors to sell their capital in a their shares of local publicly traded firms to take advantage of investment opportunities abroad. domestic currency and To understand this further, let's imagine that the push the demand for it UK economy is booming, and its stock market is higher, making the performing well. Meanwhile, in the United States, a lackluster economy is creating a shortage of currency appreciate.

investment opportunities. In this type of environment U. investors will feel When the equity more inclined to sell their U. dollars and buy British pounds to participate in the markets are outperformance of the UK economy.

When they elect to do so, it results in the outflow of capital experiencing recessions, from the United States and the inflow of capital however, foreign into the United Kingdom. pushing the domestic currency down. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Key indicators The most overrated indicator GDP is no longer a big deal GDP report has also become one of least important economic indicators on the U. calendar, as it has led to some of the smallest relative movements in the EURUSD. One possible explanation is that GDP is released less frequently than other data in our study it comes out quarterly versus monthly , but in general, the GDP report is more prone to ambiguity and misinterpretation.

For example, surging GDP brought about by rising exports will be positive for the home currency; however, if GDP growth is a result of inventory buildup, the effect on the currency may actually be negative.

Also, a large number of the components that comprise the GDP report are known in advance of the release. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Most volatile news reports That traders should follow closely Volatility and profits in forex are measured in pips. The bigger the volatility the more pips and money a trader can make from a certain trade.

Keep this chart by your side and make sure to mark these reports in your calendar! Unemployment indicator, showing if U. employment is growing or not. interest rates. Inflation indicator. for month prior to the release of the report.

Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 1 What are Economic Indicators? Economic indicators are snippets of financial and economic data published regularly by governmental agencies and the private sector. These statistics help market observers monitor the economy's pulse - so it's no surprise that they're followed by almost everyone in the financial markets.

With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and move prices. It might seem like you need an advanced economics degree to parse all this data accurately - but in fact traders need only keep a few simple guidelines in mind when making trading decisions based on this data. Mark Your Economic Calendars Watching the economic calendar not only helps you consider trades around these events, it helps explain otherwise unanticipated price actions during those periods.

Consider this scenario: it's Monday morning and the USD has been falling for 3 weeks, with many traders short USD positions as a result. On Friday, however, U. employment data is scheduled to be released. If that report looks promising, traders may start unwinding their short positions before Friday, leading to a short-term rally in USD through the week.

Know exactly when each economic indicator will be released. You can find these calendars at the New York Federal Reserve Bank's site. What does This Data Mean for the Economy? You need not understand every nuance of each data release, but you should try to grasp key, large-scale relationships between reports and what they measure in the economy. For example, you should know which indicators measure the economy's growth gross domestic product, or GDP versus those that measure inflation PPI, CPI or employment strength non-farm payrolls.

Not All Economic Indicators can Move Markets The market may pay attention to different indicators under different conditions. That focus can change over time and from one currency to another. For example, if prices inflation are not a crucial issue for a given country, but its economic growth is problematic, traders may pay less attention to inflation data and focus on employment data or GDP reports. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 2 Watch for the Unexpected Often the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations.

If a given report differs widely and unexpectedly from what economists and market pundits were anticipating, market volatility and potential trading opportunities may result. At the same time, be careful of pulling the trigger too quickly when an indicator falls outside expectations. Each new economic indicator release contains revisions to previously released data.

Don't Get Caught Up in Details While your macroeconomics professor may appreciate all the nuances of an economic report, traders need to filter data to focus on the numbers that can inform their trading decisions. For example, many new traders watch the headlines of the employment report, for example, assuming that new jobs are key to economic growth. That may be true generally, but in trading terms non-farm payroll is the figure traders watch most closely and therefore has the biggest impact on markets.

Similarly, PPI measures changes in producer prices generally - but traders tend to watch PPI excluding food and energy as a market driver. Food and energy data tend to be much too volatile and subject to revisions to provide an accurate reading on producer price changes.

There are Two Sides to Every Trade Just remember that no trader's knowledge can be complete all the time. You might have a great handle on economic data published in Europe - but there are times when data published in the U. or Australia might have a surprising impact on your currency market. Doing your homework before trading any currency can help you make better decisions. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8.

With a consensus at 9. economy, and as a result, a weaker dollar. They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. What the heck! This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event. The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9.

Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible. This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock!

Since the market consensus was 9. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released. Instability in the world likelihood of Clinton becoming the next market prods investors to pull out of their president, Lim Say Boon, chief investment financial positions, leading to currency officer at DBS Bank Ltd.

in Singapore, wrote depreciation. in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders," he said. You must remember that investors hate uncertainty! Similar effects have occured with Clinton and Obama. For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Market psychology The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates often start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment!

Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market.

This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish, in other words being optimistic or pessimistic. If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. Overlap between two The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it nearly impossible sessions for a single trader to track every market Generally, whenever there is an overlap in movement and respond immediately at the market e.

In period. For instance, every morning during order to devise an effective and London Open session. Euro pairs are active time-efficient investment strategy, it is and if you have a good strategy, you could important to understand how much get pips. liquidity there is around the clock to maximize the number of trading opportunities during a trader's own 2.

News Release market hours. Fundamentals drive the market. During News Release, volatility is experienced and Besides liquidity, a currency pair's trading some pairs could move over pips range is also heavily dependent on depending on the type of news. For example geographical location and macroeconomic Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news factors. release and dollar based currency pairs could move hundreds of pips in seconds.

Knowing what time of day a currency pair However, trading news is risky if you are not has the highest or narrowest trading knowledgeable about it. volatility will undoubtedly help traders improve their investment utility due to better capital allocation. Central Bank Govenor's Speech High volatility offers lucrative profit Speeches from these guys could make pairs potentials to short-term traders. Lower go hundred's of pips and even change volatility under 80 pips per day is better market sentiment with effects lasting into for risk-averse traders, because there are months.

However, its risky to trade these less iregular market movements caused by speeches except you are subscribed to some aggressive intraday speculation. Section 03 Forex timing What Are the Best Times to Trade Forex We strongly advice you to avoid all resources that traders can then purchase currencies from tell you Forex market is a fairy-tale place where different continents. The timing in forex trading is is usually the most active as it involves many crucial!

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With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and move prices. just to ensure that losses are capped, but also to protect profits. Beware of "Analysis Paralysis" Forecasting models are both art and science, with so many different approaches that traders can get overloaded. profitability in the account. In period. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible. By Kathy Lien, Boris Schlossberg.

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